October 11, 2024
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of 254,000 for the month
of September, far above the 6-month moving average of 167,000. The unemployment rate
fell back to 4.1%. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal
at +14bps. US Treasury yields fell in September, heading into the FOMC meeting. Although
yields did ultimately retrace higher towards the end of the month, broadly, they did
decrease across the curve for the full month of September, with short-end rates falling
faster than long-end rates. - The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index reading was -5.0% in August y/y, a slight
improvement from July’s y/y reading of -5.2%. - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for September was 54.9, expanding for the third straight month
after contracting in June. The sector has expanded in 49 out of the last 52 months. 12 out of
17 industries reported growth in September. - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was 47.2%, contracting again for the sixth
consecutive month and the 22nd time in the last 23 months. 5 out of 18 industries reported
growth in September. - According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were -4.3% y/y in
August, slightly below the six-month moving average of -4.8%. The average 30-year
mortgage rate is 6.96%. - The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports 46%
bullish and 27% bearish, for a spread of 19% (bullish). The current CNN Fear and Greed
index reading is 74 (“greed”), an improvement from a reading of 39 (“fear”) one month ago.
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