August 5, 2024
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of 114,000 for the month of July, below the 6-month moving average of 194,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%.
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains inverted albeit slightly at -14 basis points. US Treasury yields fell in July as the market further reacted to softer economic data. The Bloomberg US Treasury Index returned 2.19%, continuing the rally seen in June.
- The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index reading was -4.8% in June y/y, a slight improvement from May’s y/y reading of -5.2%.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI for July was 51.4, expanding after contracting in June. The sector has expanded in 47 out of the last 50 months. 10 out of 18 industries reported growth in July.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July was 46.8, contracting again for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. 5 out of 16 industries reported growth in July.
- According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were -7.8% y/y in June, below the six-month moving average of -4.3%. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.9%.
- The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports 45% bullish and 25% bearish, for a spread of +20% (bullish). The current CNN Fear and Greed index reading is 19 (“extreme fear”), a material move from a reading of 50 (“neutral”) one month ago.
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