March 8, 2023
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of 275,000 for the month of February. The unemployment rate was 3.9%, up from 3.7% in January. There were 6.5 million unemployed workers compared to 8,863,000 job openings in February.
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains inverted at -41 basis points, down from -26 basis points at the end of January. Curve inversion was driven by short-end rates rising faster than long-end rates.
- The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell 0.4% in January, following a 0.2% decline in December 2023.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI for February was 52.6%. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion; the sector has grown in 44 of the last 45 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. Fourteen out of seventeen industries reported growth in February.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February was 47.8%, down 1.3% from January’s recording of 49.1%. The manufacturing sector has been in a recession with 16 consecutive months of contraction. Eight manufacturing industries reported growth, while seven reported contraction.
- According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were -6.8% y/y in January. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.10%, slightly below the 12-month moving average of 7.28%.
- The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports 52% bullish and 22% bearish, for a spread of +30%. The current CNN Fear and Greed Index reading is 74. These sentiment indicators imply excessive investor optimism.
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