December 9, 2024
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll additions of 227,000 for the month of
November, far below the 6-month moving average of 143,000. The unemployment rate inched
up to 4.2%. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve (10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) remains slightly normal at +6
bps. US Treasury yields stayed elevated for much of November, but retraced slightly towards the
end of the month. - The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index reading was -4.1% in October y/y, a slight
improvement from September’s y/y reading of -4.6%. The LEI remains in contraction but has
continued to trend more positive after bottoming-out in April of 2023. - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for November was 52.1%, expanding for the fifth straight month after
contracting in June. The sector has expanded in 51 out of the last 54 months. 14 industries
reported growth in November while 3 reported contraction. - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October was 48.4%, contracting again for the eighth
consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months. 3 industries reported growth in
November while 11 reported contraction. - According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were +2.0% in October,
slightly above the six-month moving average of +1.9%. The average 30-year mortgage rate is
7.0%. - The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey reports 48.3% bullish
and 30.7% bearish, for a spread of 17.6% (bullish). The current CNN Fear and Greed index
reading is 54 (“neutral”), a slight contraction from the reading of 62 (“greed”) one month ago.
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